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| Dr. Ron Paul faces the first test in the Iowa Caucus 3rd January 2012 |
I was reviewing the history of opinion polls in Iowa and well it seems that the Gingrich candle burned brightly but has now burned out, the last of a successive number of waves pushing one candidate to the forefront only to fall away under closer scrutiny, the sort of scrutiny that is noticeably absent from Jersey politics.
Scrutiny which means that what you say is closely examined and you are questioned on the meat of what you are saying to see if a) you actually know what you are talking about and b) you really mean what you say.
Instead, in Jersey, we have a kind of mutual agreement - you tell us what we want to hear and we won't hold you to it.
But one man is trying to change that, and has been for the past thirty years or so. This is his third run at president. The last shot is in the barrel in the form of Rick Santorum but if the polls hold true and if as everyone believes the polls have consistently understated support for Ron Paul on the back of media pressure against 'the candidate who cannot win'.
If Ron Paul were to win and become president then truly this would be the 'end of the world as we know it', the excesses of government stripped away, cut backs in the US military spending, particularly overseas would likely have the same effect as when the same cutbacks were introduced by the Soviet Union in the 1980's. Countries around the world used to seeing lots of US military dollars shoring up their economies will be affected.
The US may not like it, but their situation precisely mirrors that of the Soviet Union some thirty years ago. Over-bureaucratisation, excessive spending pre-dominantly on the military and sluggish economic activity.
Paul's stated intention of reducing tax, with the ideal of removing Income Tax altogether, would be a body blow to offshore finance, which let's face it only exists because of inefficient and bloated governments around the world. Take away the problem and the 'offshore solution' no longer solves anything. But it would be a boon to US industry.
Jersey sadly is not. There are just too many people dependent on State handouts; every politician, every civil servant or person employed by States funded bodies and yes that includes the Jersey Evening Post, every pensioner and every income support claimant and their relatives. There was a time when people as a matter of pride refused to go cap in hand unless they desperately needed to, but now people feel 'entitled' and want to 'milk the system'. They pay in so why not take out... the more obvious question is, "Why pay in?".
The finance industry gave them the means for self-aggrandisement and how did the likes of Horsfall, Walker and Ozouf, small men with no merits to commend them to history, react? Predictably!
There is no government less efficient or more bloated than that of Jersey. But with so many people entirely dependent on it, they will never vote to change it.
Those of us who hold the Libertarian persuasion must rely on outside events to force change upon this island and be ready, unfortunately, to move away at a moment's notice leaving the old and the dependent, to suffer the consequences of their own stupidity in placing trust in what passes for government in Jersey. Awaiting the opportunity to return when the property market has fallen to its underlying value (around 50% of current prices), when the people are ready to turn their backs on dependence and embrace the future.
It will be hard to see people suffer, but without the suffering how will they every learn? They will be enjoying the fruits of their lack of labour.
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