Google+ Followers

Thursday, 15 August 2013

Jersey: Just how bad the economy is

Flicking through the Gross Value Added statistical report published in September 2012 I noticed something odd.

I decided to re-state the figures to look at the relative growth of the private sector and public sector in Jersey, the results reproduced below are to say the least shocking.

Are you feeling the squeeze of increased government at a time when your business is not growing? Are your taxes and operating costs increasing whilst your turnover and profits are not?

The results ably demonstrate why and the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of government.

  Total  CUMULATIVE  GROWTH CUMULATIVE  GROWTH CUMULATIVE
YEAR  GVA 1 PUBLIC 1 PRIVATE 1
1999 5% 105% 6% 106% -1% 99%
2000 4% 109% 3% 109% 1% 100%
2001 -3% 106% 3% 112% -6% 94%
2002 -3% 103% 1% 114% -4% 90%
2003 -4% 99% 2% 116% -6% 85%
2004 -1% 98% 2% 118% -3% 82%
2005 1% 99% 1% 119% 0% 82%
2006 5% 104% 3% 123% 2% 84%
2007 5% 109% 5% 129% 0% 84%
2008 -3% 105% 3% 133% -6% 79%
2009 -6% 99% 0% 133% -6% 74%
2010 -5% 94% 1% 134% -6% 70%

The Statistics unit will not produce GDP statistics as it 'produces results which are not truly representative' so it is impossible to compare them internationally.

The first two columns demonstrate that combined the GVA of Jersey shrunk by 5% in the period 1999 to 2010, the middle columns demonstrate that conversely the government GVA increased by 34% and the final two columns demonstrate that the private sector (or what the government is supposed to be there to serve) shrank by 30%.

One would expect that the size of government would roughly keep pace with the size of the private sector but in relative terms then (134%/70%) the size of government doubled in that period.