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Monday, 5 March 2012

Super Tuesday Awaits the GOP Hopefuls

This is the eve of what is known as Super Tuesday, not so super as in the past where up to 50% of the States would have made their views known, this time just 11 States are voting.
Dr Ron Paul

It’s important to keep a couple things in mind. Chief among them is that it’s very unlikely the outcome will meaningfully affect the current contour of the race. Right now, Mitt Romney is winning, and he’ll probably still be winning on Wednesday morning. As Matthew Dickinson, a political scientist at Middlebury College, points out in a clarifying blog post, the candidates’ shares of delegates and the popular votes are not likely to change.

But that doesn’t mean Super Tuesday is not important.

What’s at stake is momentum—something none of the various frontrunners has managed to maintain. Romney has won the last five contests (although Maine is questionable). Most political insiders discount Georgia, assuming that Newt Gingrich will win handily, and Rick Santorum has a good shot to pick up Oklahoma. That makes Ohio the evening’s marquee matchup, even though, as Dickinson points out, more delegates are stake in Georgia than Ohio. An Ohio loss for Romney probably wouldn’t do a great deal to jeopardize his chance of winning the nomination, but it would once again reemphasize his difficulty winning over blue-collar voters and prolong the contest in a way that’s likely to damage him further with the independent voters he’ll need to win in the fall.

But should Romney win Ohio, he’d demonstrate strength in a state whose demographics favor Rick Santorum, and he’d pretty much obviate any rationale for Santorum to remain in the race. That doesn’t mean Santorum (or Gingrich) is likely to drop out soon. But the Republican establishment would probably close ranks around Romney in a way it’s been unwilling to do until now. While the race could bump along for several more months with all four candidates, it’s likely that the focus would at last shift to the general election and President Obama—for Romney, not a moment too soon.

So with Santorum and Gingrich wasting their time and other people's money splitting the anti-Romney vote and damaging the chances of the only credible candidate from either party from getting a fair hearing.

On “Face the Nation,” Texas Rep. Ron Paul however sounded optimistic about the rest of the Republican nominating process. He predicted that he will obtain a “majority of delegates” in Tuesday’s bundle of nominating contests.

Spending the day campaigning in Alaska, Rep. Paul told host Bob Schieffer that he is looking to win three of the seven “Super Tuesday” states — Alaska, North Dakota and Idaho. Those three states are holding caucuses on Tuesday, and Paul is sticking with his strategy of focusing on the small caucus states that rely on activist voters.

Those three states have a total of 87 delegates at stake — about 20 percent of the number to be allocated Tuesday. Paul told Schieffer that there is a “good chance we come out with a majority of delegates.”

As for wrapping up the nomination, Paul said, “Do I believe I could win? Yes,” but he said the chances are low. “Do I think the chances are slim? Yes, I do,” Paul said, but noting political events are in a state of “flux,” meaning anything could happen. According to CBS News, Paul is currently in fourth place in the delegate count with 20 delegates — not including his second place Washington State finish Saturday — while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is leading with 187 delegates. Paul estimates differently and is applying the same Caucus strategy that saw Obama topple Hillary Clinton even with a lower percentage of the overall vote. His supporters are just more dedicated to the cause of Liberty.

Also important is Virginia which will see just two candidates run off Romney and Paul, this State provides the opportunity to see how Ron Paul would fair if the two time wasters (Gingrich and Santorum) did the honourable thing.

The video presentation below I hope explains just why only Ron Paul's policies are in the interests of the American people, and let's face it what is good for America is good for us.

As an aside I believe I have found one of the heroes of Ron Paul as can be seen from this clip from 1974.