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Wednesday, 11 January 2012

US GOP Nomination Round 2

Quotes from the coverage...
Mitt Romney looks set to win as long as
candidates refuse to drop out of the race
"New Hampshire leaves us with Mitt Romney moving toward the Republican presidential nomination, and Ron Paul building a real movement for his ideas within the GOP. What the rest of the candidates are doing at this point is impossible to tell."
"In the meantime, Ron Paul deserves praise for a strong second place finish in New Hampshire. Paul, of course, won't win the nomination – but he will collect delegates along the way. Paul may not win the election, but his real goal is to win the argument. In that regard, Paul likely has won a convention speech for himself – and may help influence the Republican plank – and the direction of the party."
"After New Hampshire primary win, all is not rosy for Mitt Romney, Republicans Don't Love Him, Tea Parties Can't Stand Him, Low Income Men Can't Relate to Him"

Ron Paul Thanks the Union Leader for NOT Endorsing Him

So the first delegates to the Republican convention that will choose the party contender have been decided as follows MITT ROMNEY 7, RON PAUL 3, JON HUNTSMAN 2. The caucus from Iowa will not be finalised until later and may be affected as nominees drop out of the race but currently stands at Romney 13, Santorum 12.

All candidates have decided to allow one more roll of the dice in South Carolina on the 21st January with Perry, Huntsman, Santorum and Gingrich all still needing to prove that they have any credibility as potential winners. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney look set to see it all the way though to Utah on the 26th June. Others will likely pull out in the wake of South Carolina - or let's hope so otherwise Romney will win by default. Whilst Santorum in Iowa and Huntsman in New Hampshire have both committed the lion's share of their campaign funds, Newt Gingrich has held back and will spend $3 million in the next ten days on TV advertising in the run up to the poll and you have to assume that this will push him up in that State.

By the time of the Florida primary on the 31st January there should be just three or four candidates left in the race. If one 'conservative' candidate can emerge as a serious challenger then it could be a three horse race yet.

Whatever happens Ron Paul will be affecting the politics of the Republican Convention with the threat of a third party bid carrying his 20 to 25% of the vote with him and away from any other Republican candidate.

It is difficult to filter through the media presentation to get a real understanding of what is happening in the US but the key issues seem to be crystallising as Government Spending, Unemployment, Foreign Policy and the perennial divisive issue of the right to life.